October 2025
HSBC bank has recently predicted that the rise in gold could push prices up to 5,000 dollars per ounce in 2026, supported by high risks and the impact of new entrants on the market.
Spot gold has crossed the level of 4,300 $ a few days ago and is heading upwards since December 2008.
This progression has been fuelled by geopolitical tensions, major purchases by central banks, the increase in inflows from exchange-traded funds, expectations of cuts in American rates and economic uncertainties linked to tariffs.
“The bull market should continue to push prices up during the first half of 2026 and we could very well reach a peak of 5,000 $/oz during the first half of 2026,” declared HSBC in a research note.
HSBC has also raised its forecast for the average gold price for 2025, moving it from 3,355 $ per ounce to 3,455 $. It has also raised its forecast for the average gold price for 2026, moving it from 3,950 $ to 4,600 $.
The bank cited geopolitical risks, uncertainty of economic policy and the increase in public debt as factors supporting the price.
HSBC declared that given the strong rise in prices during the second half of 2025 and the increased risks linked to new entrants on the market, it expects gold prices to remain high and potentially increase further until the beginning of 2026.
But the bank also expects significant volatility and some moderation in prices during the second half of 2026.
“Unlike previous rallies, we think that many of these new buyers will probably remain in the gold sector – even after the end of the rally – not so much for appreciation but for the diversification of gold and its qualities as a ‘safe haven’,” declared the bank.
HSBC joins analysts at Bank of America and Société Générale, who predicted earlier in the week that gold could reach 5,000 dollars per ounce in 2026.
By the Editorial Team with Anushree Mukherjee and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese
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