Zimbabwe and Namibia Lead Africa’s Lithium Boom — But Is It Still Profitable

As demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems continues to surge, lithium has emerged as one of the planet’s most strategically important commodities. For Africa — endowed with significant resources yet historically a peripheral supplier — 2026 could be a pivotal year in the evolution of lithium mining profitability and economic impact.

This article examines whether lithium mining in Africa is profitable today, how major players like Zimbabwe and Namibia are performing, and what broader market dynamics mean for operators, investors, and governments.

A Global Boom in Lithium Demand

Lithium demand is tightly linked to EV battery production and renewable energy storage. While precise global data for 2026 remains in flux, industry forecasts show continued strong growth:

• Global lithium production reached an estimated 338,000 tonnes in 2025, up nearly 20% from the previous year, and is projected to grow further in 2026 and beyond. Supply is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 8% through 2035.
• EV sales continue to accelerate worldwide. Although specific 2026 figures vary by source, multiple industry analyses project EV adoption growth into the tens of millions of units annually by the end of the decade.

This structural demand lift, driven by governments’ climate targets and battery deployment, provides the foundation for lithium’s long-term value proposition.

Africa’s Lithium Reserves: Significant but Under-Realised

Africa holds a meaningful portion of the world’s lithium endowment, with roughly 26.7 million tonnes of identified resources — approximately 5 % of the global total.

The continent’s production landscape today is still small relative to global leaders like Australia, Chile, or China, but it is expanding:

• In 2024, African output totaled about 124,230 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) — a small share of global supply but poised for rapid growth.
• Countries with notable lithium deposits include Zimbabwe, Mali, Namibia, Ghana, and the Democratic Republic of Congo — though most projects currently focus on

hard-rock spodumene concentrate rather than refined battery chemicals.

Zimbabwe, in particular, was Africa’s leading producer of lithium concentrates, exporting 1.128 million t of spodumene in 2025, an 11 % increase year-on-year.

Profitability: Prices, Costs and Market Realities

Profitability in lithium mining comes down to prices vs. production costs — and in 2025-26, that picture has been complicated.

Price Volatility and Recent Trends

Global lithium prices experienced significant volatility in 2024 and 2025. Oversupply at the time led to a steep slide in prices — at one point limestone concentrate benchmarks fell nearly 90% from earlier peaks.

However, prices have rebounded sharply in early 2026, with hard-rock spodumene exceeding

$2,000 per tonne, driven by renewed demand for battery metals and storage systems.

That recovery has been reflected in lithium stock performance and market sentiment. Market data shows that following supply constraints (including export policy shifts discussed below), lithium prices in major trading hubs — such as China’s Guangzhou Futures Exchange — surged by around 6% or more within days of supply disruptions.

Production Cost Competitiveness

African lithium production costs are generally below global averages for spodumene concentrate. Reports indicate costs in the region of US $250-$650 per tonne, compared with benchmark Australian costs closer to US $800 per tonne.

This cost advantage gives African producers a structural edge when prices are strong. But margins compress significantly when prices fall or remain volatile — a risk many operators have faced in the past two years.

Zimbabwe: Case Study of Growth, Policy Shift and Profit Potential

Exports and Price Effects

Zimbabwe’s lithium exports grew steadily through 2025, with 1.128 million t of spodumene sold last year, largely to China.

Yet export revenues remained nearly flat at approximately $513.8 million, slightly below figures from 2024, because of suppressed prices amid oversupply.

This dynamic highlights how volumes and revenue do not always move in tandem — a key consideration for assessing profitability.

Policy Shifts Toward Local Value Addition

In late February 2026, Zimbabwe suspended exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates with immediate effect — a significant policy shift ahead of an earlier, planned 2027 ban. The government cited export leakages and malpractices and emphasised a push toward local processing and beneficiation.

The export restriction had immediate effects on markets, contributing to price surges and boosting sentiment for refined product markets.

Building Downstream Capacity

Major Chinese companies such as Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt and Sinomine are investing hundreds of millions in new lithium sulphate processing plants in Zimbabwe — which will begin production in early 2026 — producing thousands of tonnes annually of intermediate battery chemical feedstocks.

These downstream investments are critical to improving profitability because:

• Refined products generally command higher prices than raw spodumene concentrates.
• Local processing retains more economic value on the continent.

Higher beneficiation increases average selling prices while creating local jobs and expanding the value captured locally.

Namibia and Other African Producers: Emerging But Uneven

Namibia is an active lithium producer with spodumene mining operations (such as the Karibib project) already exporting concentrate.

While smaller than Zimbabwe’s output, Namibia offers important diversification in African lithium supply. However, profitability there — as with many emerging producers — is highly dependent on export terms, infrastructure readiness, and dependable energy supply.

Producers in countries with underdeveloped refining capacity and higher logistics costs face

slimmer margins compared with those investing in downstream processing.

The Profit Equation: Infrastructure, Policy and Risk

Even with resource advantages and cost competitiveness, mining businesses face a range of risks that can erode profitability:

Infrastructure Limitations

Poor road, rail and electrical infrastructure increases production costs and complicates logistics, particularly for remote lithium projects.

Policy Uncertainty

Export bans, tax changes, and resource nationalism — as seen in Zimbabwe — can either enhance long-term value (by forcing local beneficiation) or deter investment if not implemented clearly.

Global Market Pressures

Competition with established producers (Australia, Chile) and price volatility means African producers must focus on downstream integration to improve profitability.

Environmental and Social Considerations

Meeting ESG standards adds cost but also access to high-quality buyers.

Long-Term Outlook: Growth and a Path to Profitability

Despite near-term volatility, the long-term fundamentals for lithium remain strong due to the relentless growth of the EV and energy storage markets.

Research indicates that global lithium production could nearly double from 2025 to 2035, with sustained demand underpinning this growth trajectory.

Africa’s share of global supply is also expected to rise. Some forecasts suggest the continent could account for as much as 12 % of global lithium supply by 2027, up from around 1 % in 2022, driven by expanded production from Zimbabwe, Mali, DRC, Ghana and other emerging producers.

To maximise profitability and economic benefit, African producers will need:

• More downstream processing capacity
• Stable, predictable policy frameworks
• Investment in infrastructure
• Strategic partnerships that prioritise local value capture

Conclusion: Profitable — But Conditional

In 2026, lithium mining in Africa can be profitable, particularly for producers that:

✔ Capture value through local processing and beneficiation

✔ Exploit cost advantages in production

✔ Navigate policy shifts effectively

✔ Leverage global demand dynamics

However, profitability is not guaranteed solely by resource endowments.

Volatile prices, infrastructure deficits, and policy uncertainty remain key challenges.

What is clear is that Africa’s lithium story is transitioning from a raw supply role to one of value creation and strategic integration in the global battery metals ecosystem.

And for mining investors and operators, this signals both opportunity and risk — but also the potential for greater economic capture than ever before.